Entertainment news: Can Avatar 2, the costliest movie ever made, be a box office winner?

All eyes are on the release of one of the costliest movies to ever be produced, Hollywood's Avatar 2, which will open on the big screen on December 16. The movie, set to be released in India in over 3,000 screens, is expected to beat the highest Hollywood grosser in the country ― Avengers: Endgame.

The big-screen spectacle, which is estimated to be made on a budget of $250 million, was called the worst business case in movie history by its director James Cameron.

Recent reports suggest that the film's budget is around $350-400 million, which will make it the most expensive film ever produced.

Most expensive films

It has been reported that Cameron estimates that if Avatar 2 has to be successful, then it has to be the third- or fourth-highest grossing film in history.

India: Avatar 2 vs Avengers: Endgame

Looking at the advances, exhibitors are expecting Avatar 2 to surpass the business of Avengers: Endgame, the highest Hollywood grosser in India till date, having collected over Rs 370 crore on a screen count of 2,845.

Avengers: Endgame had collected around Rs 53 crore in India on its opening day, and Avatar 2 will surpass this, said Rajender Singh Jyala, Chief Programming Officer, INOX Leisure.

Along with Avengers: Endgame, Avatar 2 is also competing with KGF 2 for a big first day opening, said Nitin Menon, Co-founder, NV Capital. South superstar Yash-starrer KFG 2 had collected over Rs 53 crore on day one from its Hindi version, and around Rs 134 crore from all languages.

Highest grossing films in India

"Advances are strong even a week before the release. The southern market has higher advances versus the other circuits. We are expecting Avatar 2 to break the record of Avengers: Endgame and do a lifetime business of Rs 350-400 crore. Also, Avatar 2 will be the biggest revenue driver in the December quarter," Jyala said.

He is expecting occupancy to be in the range of 70-75 percent for Avatar 2's opening. "We expect houseful shows for Avatar 2 for the opening weekend. It will be the biggest film in the December quarter," said Ashish Kanakia, CEO, Cineline India.

Biggest movie in Q3

Multiplexes are betting on Q3 of FY23 after a slow September quarter when box office revenue for Bollywood and Hollywood was estimated to be down at Rs 700 crore from Rs 1,130 crore in Q1. Theatres that started seeing recovery with Bollywood film Drishyam 2 (released on November 18) that has fared well with Rs 197 crore so far, are expecting Q3 revenues to be the same as in Q1 with more big releases like Avatar 2 and another upcoming venture Cirkus starring Ranveer Singh.

"Q3 is looking as good as Q1 because of Drishyam 2, Avatar 2 and Cirkus," Kanakia said.

While Brahmastra had a positive impact, there were sluggish Diwali releases, said Abhishek Jain, Head of Research, Arihant Capital.

"In the June quarter, we saw the complete impact of people coming back to the theatres. It was a relatively strong quarter. Q3 has been slightly impacted by the World Cup fever, when both T20 World Cup and soccer World Cup dented theatre earnings. So, Q3 may show a slightly lower performance in comparison to Q1," he said.

Menon said that Q3 will be below par since Diwali releases like Ram Setu, Thank God, and Raksha Bandhan were weak performers. "However, regional movies like Kantara, and PS 1 and Hindi movies like Drishyam 2, and Uunchai, will give some respite. Recovery should start in Q4 since there is a spate of movies, including Shah Rukh Khan's Pathan. If these movies perform well, then FY24 could turn out to be above par."

Single-screen theatre owner Akshaye Rathi, who is also counting on Avatar 2's strong box office business, said that compared to the September quarter, consumption of movies in theatres is now rising to pre-Covid levels.

"Earlier, we saw an erratic pattern when movies that were doing well ran in theatres for four to five weeks and those that were not liked by the audiences were unable to get a decent opening. Looking at medium budget films like Bhediya, and An Action Hero, it seems like consumption is normal again, which will only get stronger. We are gearing up for a strong 2023 (FY24)," he said.